Last updated: October 2026
By Dustin Randall Olson, Coach DO
Key takeaways
- Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September 2026, NAR reported on October 20, 2026.
- Contract signings were down 11.3% from a year earlier as of September 2026, per NAR.
- Every region slipped in September 2026, and the West fell the most at 9.2% for the month, per NAR.
- The 30-year fixed average eased to 7.32% as of October 22, 2026, from 7.40% a week earlier, per Freddie Mac.
- Coach DO’s take: a pending-sales drop warns you about closings 30 to 60 days out, so this is the month to prospect harder.
Pending home sales dropped hard in September 2026, and that number tells you more about your next two months than any headline about closed sales. Here is what the report says, why it matters to your pipeline, and the moves I coach agents to make this week.
What the September 2026 pending home sales report says
The National Association of Realtors released its Pending Home Sales Index for September on October 20, 2026. The index fell to 66.0. That is a 7.3% drop from August and an 11.3% drop from September 2025.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun tied the decline to “fast-rising mortgage rates.” He also said buyers and sellers “may simply be holding back” until rates improve.
No region escaped it. Here is the September 2026 breakdown from NAR.
| Region | Change from August 2026 | Change from September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| Midwest | -6.5% | -8.7% |
| South | -8.2% | -12.0% |
| West | -9.2% | -15.0% |
| U.S. total | -7.3% | -11.3% |
Why pending sales matter more than closed sales
A pending sale is a signed contract that has not closed yet. Most of those contracts close within one to two months. So September’s contracts become the closings reported in October and November.
Closed sales are the rearview mirror. Earlier this month I wrote about September 2026 existing-home sales, which ticked up. The pending numbers say that bump may not last.
For your own business, the same logic applies. Your closings next month are already decided by the contracts you wrote last month. If your pending list is thin today, the fix starts now.
What the rate picture adds
There is one small bright spot. Per the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. The week before, it was 7.40%. A year earlier, it was 6.19%.
One week is not a trend. Still, Yun said rates “could be topping out.” That gives you a reason to call buyers who paused, without promising them anything about where rates go next. This is educational, not financial advice; send rate questions to a licensed loan officer.
Five moves to protect your pipeline this month
1. Count your own pending deals
Write down every deal under contract and its expected close date. Then compare that list to your monthly income goal. Knowing the gap beats guessing at it.
2. Build a paused-buyer list
Pull every buyer who stopped looking since summer. Call each one with a simple question: what would need to change for you to start again? Their answers become your follow-up plan.
3. Work your database before your ad budget
Past clients and your sphere already know you. In a slow month, they are the cheapest source of your next contract. My page on database and sphere of influence coaching covers how I help agents run that system.
4. Reset seller expectations with data
Bring the regional numbers to every listing conversation. Sellers respond to facts with dates and sources. Fewer contracts means pricing right on day one matters even more.
5. Protect your prospecting time
When the market slows, many agents slow down with it. Block your lead generation hours first, then schedule everything else around them. My business planning and time management coaching is built around that habit.
The mindset behind the numbers
A soft market does not decide your year. Your actions do. The agents who keep calling, keep following up, and keep their calendar tight usually come out of a slowdown with more market share.
Results depend on your effort, your market, and your consistency, and nothing here is a guarantee. If you want an honest look at where your business stands, take the free Real Estate Business Assessment.
Frequently asked questions
What are pending home sales?
They count signed purchase contracts that have not closed yet. NAR tracks them monthly in its Pending Home Sales Index, which often signals where closed sales go next.
How much did pending sales fall in September 2026?
They fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, per NAR’s October 20, 2026 release. All four regions declined.
Does a drop in pending sales mean prices will fall?
Not necessarily. Yun said the limited number of distressed properties is keeping home prices steady. Local conditions vary, so check your own market data.
What should agents do when contract signings drop?
Count your own pending deals, call paused buyers, work your database, and protect your prospecting time. The contracts you write this month set your closings for the next two.
Next step: When buyers come back, they will search Google and ask AI who to call. Make sure your name shows up. Get your free 100-point Google and AI audit.
About the author: Dustin Randall Olson (Coach DO) is a triple certified business coach, fifth generation real estate professional, and founder of Coach DO, LLC. He created GAS Engine Optimization and the PAWN+ identity framework, which help real estate agents across the United States and Canada get found on Google and recommended by AI search. He coaches the whole person, not just the business, from his home base in Franklin, Tennessee.